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In this week's Alts & Ends, we explored the idea that it might be tough for today's collectors to realize enormous returns on unique, physical pieces of technology forty years down the road. That being the case, you can understand why there are evangelists of digital collectibles.
If digital collectibles are indeed set to be a bigger part of the future, then bets made now may prove to be quite fruitful down the road. Many, though, aren't interested in the vague, distant possibilities that lie "down the road." Their appetite is instead piqued by the alluring potential of a quick, speculation-fueled flip. Some don't have the patience to wait for a Starbucks order, let alone forty years of appreciation.
Speaking of Starbucks, the company's debut NFTs are making waves in recent weeks, and the sale prices are...shall we say...more venti-sized than they are grande.
The Polygon-based NFT rewards program has remained a closed beta since its launch in December, but that hasn't stopped Starbucks Odyssey members from flipping their free stamp NFTs for big money. On Nifty Gateway, the "Holiday Cheer Edition 1 Stamp" has a floor price of $1,700. A month ago, sales prices were very commonly beneath $500.
The other three NFTs in the program, released in the weeks to follow, have yet to catch on with the same fervor. Why? The Holiday Cheer Stamp, rewarded for "free" to members that completed challenges and purchased a holiday gift card, was the first NFT produced by Starbucks. That perhaps cements its place as a key piece of NFT-based, corporate rewards program history. And now that we've put that phrase in writing, we question just how exciting it is to be a key piece of that history.
Still, could it be the sealed first generation iPhone of a new moment? Or will it become a steadily depreciating hot potato fading into the abyss if and when Starbucks decides this experiment lacked staying power?
That's the risk that faces early adopters, but with NFT speculation still quite frothy, the opportunity isn't as attractive as it was at just hundreds of dollars. Already, the stamp is cooling from a brief foray above $2,000.
Digital speculation isn't confined to the caffeinated, though. One politician's NFT project is surging "big league."
Donald Trump's Polygon-based digital trading cards have rapidly appreciated in recent weeks after a subdued period that followed the initial, post-release frenzy. The NFTs were originally minted for $99 back in December, with 44,000 cards selling. The floor price ended 2022 just above $200, and at the time of writing, it sits just under $1,000. Sales volume for February, with a week remaining, is 31% higher than it was for all of January.
With 2024 campaign activity heating up and with various social platforms restoring Trump's access, there seems to be a speculative belief that both his increased visibility and the commensurate potential for greater exposure of the cards could lead to upside price activity.
Whether either of these things - Starbucks stamps or Trump trading cards - retain value and grow over the next 40 years is up for spirited debate, but we can't help but think, independent of monetary concern, both NFTs would be a stellar fit for a 2023 time capsule.
Somehow, people are going to have to make sense of what the heck was going on here.
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